5 months ago, I wrote this in my previous post three days after the March Mayoral primary:
Okay ... now to PotBoA '15: Reed should be fine on North Side, but he took some real damage in Central Corridor that the challenger will exploit. Reed will have to look to WARD 20 and WARD 25 to make up for losses in Central Corridor. WARD 20 is still, I think, a majority-black ward (I think that it's something like 60/40 black). WARD 25 is majority-white, but it's close. Both wards are South Side, so there isn't the black electoral political organization and municipal election voting habits that there are on North Side. The persistently anemic voter turnout in these two wards are indicative of such. Team Reed really should start spending more time on CHEROKEE, CHIPPEWA and MERAMEC. The Anglers should start doing the same.I think that two things of note have happened since: one thing somewhat under the radar and one thing somewhat over the radar.
The thing of note that happened somewhat under the radar is that, per her committee's campaign finance filings, CWE alderman Lyda Krewson this past quarter has retained the services of KC-based Swing State Media for "web development." Swing State Media, incidentally (or not), is the firm behind MAYORSLAY.COM.
LydaKrewson.com reads very much like a Citywide candidate's website. Check out especially the "Why Lyda?" section. Of course, the front page still reads "Lyda Krewson for Alderman," but the committee's stated "refund policy" is interesting [bolding by me]:
All financial contributions to our campaign are considered final. We reserve the right to modify, suspend or terminate our campaign at any time without notice or refund.Meanwhile, the thing of note that happened somewhat over the radar is Lewis Reed's opening of a "campaign office and community space" on CHEROKEE. The press release talks a lot about Reed's wanting to link up with young entrepreneurs and the creative class and whatnot. I don't doubt that's sincere. But I believe that the overriding reason for Reed's situating himself on CHEROKEE has to do with what one of Reed's campaign managers, Glenn Burleigh, laid-out to the St. Louis American last November:
On the eastern half of South City, there are many areas where African-American residents make up large percentages or (in a smaller number of neighborhoods) outright majorities. In both August and November, these oft-neglected voters showed up in numbers stronger than seen in recent elections in middle income neighborhoods (Shaw, Gate District) and lower-income, renter-heavy neighborhoods (Gravois Park, Benton Park West).So, Krewson looks to be gearing up for a challenge to Reed, in which she most likely will dominate Central Corridor, and so Reed moves southeast in an effort to wake the "Sleeping Dragon."
For years, African-American turnout rates in many of these neighborhoods have been dwarfed by their counterparts to the north. Big Democratic GOTV operations have traditionally skipped much of this part of town, because they’ve believed that organizing in these neighborhoods is a waste of time and money.
On the other hand, among St. Louis’ political circles, this vote is often seen as a “sleeping dragon,” one that when awoken could shake the balance of power in city politics. In the chronically low-turnout municipal primary elections that decide on our city’s leaders, every vote has an outsized influence, and disorganization among African-American voters in South St. Louis has limited black political power. This is often exacerbated by white-dominated Democratic ward organizations that don’t really try to get African-American voters involved or actively work against this organizing, which they see as a potential future challenge to their power.